The ex-Barcelona coach arrived at the Allianz Arena in 2013 to create a dynasty but when he leaves the club they will likely face a significant rebuilding operation
Pep Guardiola's arrival at Bayern Munich two years ago was supposed to signal a sea change in football. The best team in the world, the unstoppable Bavarians had romped their way to the treble the previous month. With a wildly successful coach on board, there was to be nothing that could stop them.
At the end of the 44-year-old's second season in charge, though, it is difficult to see what progress has been made. Bundesliga dominance was long since assured, given the weakness of the so-called competition and the quality and depth Bayern have at their disposal.
Yet, despite two years in charge and three major trophies, it is hard to argue that he has really taken the team forward from the heights they hit in 2013 under Jupp Heynckes. They are still reliant on Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben to create goals, Bastian Schweinsteiger for midfield inspiration and Philipp Lahm for leadership.
Before Guardiola arrived, Bayern had reached back-to-back Champions League finals, beating Real Madrid in the semi-finals in 2012 and Barcelona the following season. Yet, in his first two terms in charge, they have been ousted at the same stage by the same opposition, shipping five goals in each tie.
The excuse, after last year's humbling loss to Madrid and the 5-3 defeat to Barca this year, was that they were facing the best team in the world. Two years ago, that title indisputably belonged to Bayern. They've given up that honour with barely a fight.
Guardiola's future has been the subject of fervent speculation in recent weeks. With just a year left on his contract and hesitant to sign a new one, Manchester City have emerged as keen admirers for his signature.
Pep has always emphasised – most recently on Monday – that he has no intention of packing his bags this summer but, if no agreement is reached and he leaves at the end of next season, what will his legacy be?
The Bayern he inherited from Heynckes was a well-drilled machine, with each player filling a specific role. His first act was to make them more tactically flexible, versing them in his passing style of play and tinkering with Lahm's role to deploy the full-back in midfield. Far from making Bayern more unpredictable, though, the new style took the spontaneity out of their game.
They may have been able to dominate the smaller Bundesliga teams from the outset but against the top sides in Europe they have been outclassed, as their results in both Champions League semi-finals have shown.
For Bayern legend Lothar Matthaus, his innovations have cost the team. "Guardiola has already said that their season is over and he's been rotating his team so much that he's unsettling the team. It seems the players are losing a bit of belief in the coach, and he hadn't expected that."
Pep's second task was to be one of renewal. As brilliant as Bayern were, Lahm, Schweinsteiger, Ribery and Robben were approaching 30 and their powers would wane significantly.
However, Guardiola's efforts in the transfer market have done nothing to prepare the club for the coming years. Mario Gotze was supposed to be the long-term heir to Robben and Ribery, but has looked a shadow of his Dortmund self since moving to the Allianz Arena. Deployed deep, up front, wide but rarely in his preferred position of a No.10, Pep seems to have had no idea how to get the most out of the 22-year-old.
Robert Lewandowski is an upgrade on Mario Mandzukic in terms of quality but his signing had been inevitable since before Pep arrived. Thiago Alcantara has proved himself to be a fine acquisition, but he is horribly injury-prone.
Bayern have been weakened by the baffling decision to allow a number of players leave. Toni Kroos is one of the world's finest midfielders but was permitted to join Real Madrid. He was the solution to the Schweinsteiger problem but was sold merely for demanding wage parity with Gotze and Thiago. The only midfielder brought in last summer, Xabi Alonso, is now 33 and long past his best.
Xherdan Shaqiri, meanwhile, may not have had the game time he would have liked, but the Switzerland international's dribbling, speed, shooting and, crucially, youth, would have made him a key component in a future Bayern side. Instead, he was sold to Inter.
Guardiola was widely expected to look to the club's academy but he has done little more than give a cursory nod of acknowledgement to Bayern's youngsters. Gianluca Gaudino, Mitchell Weiser and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg have been little more than nuclear options in case of a spate of injuries, the latter farmed out on loan.
Honorary president Franz Beckenbauer was left baffled by some of his decisions. "I think mistakes were made. I can't understand why Shaqiri was sold and Hojbjerg was loaned out."
For the most part, though, he has made do with what was already at the club. Robben and Ribery have only become even more integral to Bayern's aspirations and the younger members of Heynckes' squad have stepped into more important roles.
More worrying is how the problems he inherited have not been identified. Rafinha was virtually frozen out under the previous regime but was installed in the first team by his new boss and even given a new contract. Roasted by Cristiano Ronaldo in last season's semi-final and torn apart by Neymar this year, his selection has cost them.
At Barcelona, Pep did an excellent job of removing those he deemed to be troublemakers from Frank Rijkaard's squad. Ronaldinho, Samuel Eto'o and Deco were ultimately replaced. His similar efforts at Bayern have fallen short.
The tactical innovations and the humble turns of phrase in press conference have been rife, but Guardiola's time at Bayern has looked more like an exercise in increasing his own brand than taking a team forward.
Pep's mission at Bayern was to consolidate them as Europe's dominant force and create a dynasty. In that, he has fallen short. Now, in all likelihood, he has just one summer to give the squad much-needed renewal. Otherwise, his successor will have his work cut out to build upon the core of Manuel Neuer, Thomas Muller, Thiago, David Alaba and Jerome Boateng.
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